All 104 matches on one chart. Click any tie for the score, the expected goals and what the ratings said beforehand, then run the simulator against what really happened.
Spain are world champions. They beat Argentina 1–0 after extra time at MetLife Stadium on 19 July 2026.
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Final, 19 July 2026, MetLife Stadium, New York New Jersey
Spain
Went through
1–0
Argentina
after extra time
On pre-tournament Elo ratings (2120 vs 2150), Spain had a 46% expected score against Argentina. The underdog went through.
Elo expectancy counts a draw as half a win, so it is not a win probability. The simulator turns it into win, draw and loss chances.
Biggest upset by the ratings: Brazil 1–2 Norway in the round of 16, where the side that went through had an Elo expectancy of 19%.
Football is the demonstration. The point is that every number on this site can be traced back to the data and the code that produced it.